← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1403679
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.9%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability97.9%
Bid / ask / mid97.7¢ / 99.1¢ / 98.4¢
Spread1.4¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+1.40pt
Change 7d+15.45pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 62/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$625
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,652 / $35,646
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score61.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 77 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.02
RSI (14, hourly)77.1
Realized vol 7d0.65pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.