← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1469737
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 86.7%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability86.7%
Bid / ask / mid86.7¢ / 87.0¢ / 86.9¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,976
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,932 / $13,200
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score57.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.06
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 15h.
Time to resolve72d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.