← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1469754

Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

1.7% implied · bid 1.5¢ · ask 1.8¢

The market prices this at 1.5%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.

Implied probability1.5%

Bid / ask / mid1.5¢ / 1.8¢ / 1.7¢

Spread0.3¢ (18.2%)

Change 24h-0.05pt

Change 7d+0.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$269

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$128 / $141

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score48.6 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.30

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.06pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 117d 7h.

Time to resolve117d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%