← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1469758
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.4¢ / 2.0¢ / 1.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (35.3%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.85pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$131 / $122
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.61
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.16pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 17h.
Time to resolve72d 17h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.