← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1535973

Iran leadership change by December 31?

14.5% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 15.0¢

The market prices this at 15.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability15.0%

Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d-2.00pt

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 49% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$508

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$107,022 / $16,569

Imbalance49% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.87

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.18pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 117d 10h.

Time to resolve117d 10h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%