← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1571989
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.1%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.8¢ spread.
Implied probability98.1%
Bid / ask / mid96.3¢ / 98.1¢ / 97.2¢
Spread1.8¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 29% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,666 / $9,641
Imbalance29% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 30 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.86
RSI (14, hourly)30.0
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 5h.
Time to resolve438d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.