← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1633606
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
0.8% implied · bid 0.7¢ · ask 0.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.8%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.8%
Bid / ask / mid0.7¢ / 0.8¢ / 0.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (13.3%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,828
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$319 / $614
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.18
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.01pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 26d 11h.
Time to resolve26d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%