← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1861361
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.8%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability97.8%
Bid / ask / mid97.6¢ / 98.6¢ / 98.1¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 86% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,424 / $3,535
Imbalance86% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.03pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 438d 3h.
Time to resolve438d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.