← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2034729

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

1.0% implied · bid 0.9¢ · ask 1.1¢

The market prices this at 0.9%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability0.9%

Bid / ask / mid0.9¢ / 1.1¢ / 1.0¢

Spread0.2¢ (20.0%)

Change 24h+0.05pt

Change 7d-0.35pt

Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$12,496

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,270 / $5,978

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score52.6 / 100

RSI 86 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.49

RSI (14, hourly)85.7

Realized vol 7d0.04pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 26d 10h.

Time to resolve26d 10h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%