← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2100981
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 28.0%, down 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability28.0%
Bid / ask / mid28.0¢ / 29.0¢ / 28.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.5%)
Change 24h-4.00pt
Change 7d-21.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 77/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$47,095
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15,524 / $47,513
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)8
Liquidity score76.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 30 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.42
RSI (14, hourly)30.0
Realized vol 7d1.68pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.