← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2110576
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.0%, up 12.7pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability39.0%
Bid / ask / mid38.8¢ / 39.0¢ / 38.9¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+12.70pt
Change 7d+21.25pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,905
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,249 / $3,731
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score53.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.89
RSI (14, hourly)81.9
Realized vol 7d1.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.