← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2110578
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.0¢ / 21.0¢ / 20.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (10.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-5.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$44,846
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$920 / $3,733
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)5
Liquidity score42.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.13
RSI (14, hourly)53.3
Realized vol 7d0.85pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.