← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2110579
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$50,497
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$590 / $3,375
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score47.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.94
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.45pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.