← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2127313
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.3%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability11.3%
Bid / ask / mid11.4¢ / 12.5¢ / 11.9¢
Spread1.1¢ (9.2%)
Change 24h+0.80pt
Change 7d+4.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,787
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$380 / $360
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.11
RSI (14, hourly)51.3
Realized vol 7d0.59pt
Change 1h-0.55pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 370d 4h.
Time to resolve370d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.