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Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?

32.5% implied · bid 31.4¢ · ask 33.5¢

The market prices this at 31.9%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.

Implied probability31.9%

Bid / ask / mid31.4¢ / 33.5¢ / 32.5¢

Spread2.1¢ (6.5%)

Change 24h+1.50pt

Change 7d+10.95pt

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$20,176

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$603 / $1,307

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score40.5 / 100

RSI 43 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.96

RSI (14, hourly)43.1

Realized vol 7d0.53pt

Change 1h+0.60pt

Resolves in 30d 7h.

Time to resolve30d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%