← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2166702
Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.6%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.9¢ spread.
Implied probability97.6%
Bid / ask / mid94.5¢ / 96.4¢ / 95.5¢
Spread1.9¢ (2.0%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+37.95pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 67/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 31% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,119
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,449 / $50,381
Imbalance31% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score67.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.91
RSI (14, hourly)41.8
Realized vol 7d2.25pt
Change 1h-1.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 72d 0h.
Time to resolve72d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.