← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2170255
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
4.2% implied · bid 3.9¢ · ask 4.4¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.9%, down 1.1pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability3.9%
Bid / ask / mid3.9¢ / 4.4¢ / 4.2¢
Spread0.5¢ (12.0%)
Change 24h-1.10pt
Change 7d-2.35pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,759
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,048 / $2,054
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.13
RSI (14, hourly)29.0
Realized vol 7d0.48pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 26d 11h.
Time to resolve26d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%