← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2176270
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 26% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$139,830
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$263,733 / $18,092
Imbalance26% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.25
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.