← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2241741
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,668
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,379 / $769
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.16
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.64pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.