← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2243896
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7d+9.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$431,832
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,611 / $1,411
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)7
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.19
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d4.00pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 56d 9h.
Time to resolve56d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%