← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2243897
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
21.5% implied · bid 21.0¢ · ask 22.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 22.0%, up 3.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability22.0%
Bid / ask / mid21.0¢ / 22.0¢ / 21.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h+3.50pt
Change 7d+3.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$30,886
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,493 / $5,104
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score51.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.01
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d0.43pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%