← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2264327
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 57/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,020
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,620 / $7,284
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score57.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.04
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 57d 5h.
Time to resolve57d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%