← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2264328

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 12.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h+2.00pt

Change 7d-1.00pt

Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 78/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 27% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$43,450

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$60,982 / $5,572

Imbalance27% bid

Large trades (>$1k)3

Liquidity score78.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.39

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.32pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 72d 20h.

Time to resolve72d 20h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (100)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.