← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2264328
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
16.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 17.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 63/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$95,283
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$19,694 / $16,749
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score63.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.42
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d0.22pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 5h.
Time to resolve118d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%