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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2317467

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?

8.0% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 9.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (25.0%)
Change 24h+1.50pt
Change 7d+2.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 40/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$367
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$399 / $218
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.3 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.47
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth