← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2363003
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.2%, down 14.3pt over 24h, on a 13.4¢ spread.
Implied probability82.2%
Bid / ask / mid55.0¢ / 68.4¢ / 61.7¢
Spread13.4¢ (21.7%)
Change 24h-14.30pt
Change 7d-8.35pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 37% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,387
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance37% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 5 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.98
RSI (14, hourly)4.6
Realized vol 7d3.08pt
Change 1h-21.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 254d 4h.
Time to resolve254d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.