← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2363004
Will Papertrade launch a token by September 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 75.8%, down 11.1pt over 24h, on a 9.5¢ spread.
Implied probability75.8%
Bid / ask / mid65.8¢ / 75.3¢ / 70.5¢
Spread9.5¢ (13.5%)
Change 24h-11.10pt
Change 7d-7.35pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 3/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 39% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,031
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$33 / $51
Imbalance39% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score2.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 22 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.26
RSI (14, hourly)22.1
Realized vol 7d1.93pt
Change 1h-14.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 346d 4h.
Time to resolve346d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.