← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2364962
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability82.0%
Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 81.0¢ / 80.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,182
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$803 / $11,896
Imbalance9% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 75 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.17
RSI (14, hourly)75.0
Realized vol 7d0.72pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.