← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2382819
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
5.0% implied · bid 4.8¢ · ask 5.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.7%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability4.7%
Bid / ask / mid4.8¢ / 5.2¢ / 5.0¢
Spread0.4¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-0.45pt
Change 7d-2.10pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,237
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,214 / $571
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.72
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%