← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2431414
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 19.0%, down 8.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability19.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h-8.00pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,960
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$318 / $1,163
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 7 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.63
RSI (14, hourly)6.7
Realized vol 7d1.16pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%