← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2431417

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

3.1% implied · bid 2.5¢ · ask 3.8¢

The market prices this at 3.0%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.

Implied probability3.0%

Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.1¢

Spread1.3¢ (41.3%)

Change 24h-0.75pt

Change 7d-4.55pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,760

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,074 / $316

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score44.7 / 100

RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.54

RSI (14, hourly)51.2

Realized vol 7d0.36pt

Change 1h-0.20pt

Resolves in 117d 10h.

Time to resolve117d 10h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%