← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2589812
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 84.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability84.0%
Bid / ask / mid84.0¢ / 85.0¢ / 84.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$660,505
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$281,762 / $1,057,217
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)33
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.38
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d2.76pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 9d 4h.
Time to resolve9d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (20)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.