← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2589858
Will Japan's core CPI increase by less than or equal to 1.9% in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.7%, down 69.8pt over 24h, on a 2.8¢ spread.
Implied probability26.7%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 27.8¢ / 26.4¢
Spread2.8¢ (10.6%)
Change 24h-69.75pt
Change 7d-40.95pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,542
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$101 / $11
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score36.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 6 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.91
RSI (14, hourly)5.7
Realized vol 7d4.23pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 95d 0h.
Time to resolve95d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.