← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2589859
Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 64.3%, up 64.8pt over 24h, on a 6.5¢ spread.
Implied probability64.3%
Bid / ask / mid64.3¢ / 70.8¢ / 67.5¢
Spread6.5¢ (9.6%)
Change 24h+64.75pt
Change 7d+45.55pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 18/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,585
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$188 / $911
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score18.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 90 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.73
RSI (14, hourly)90.3
Realized vol 7d4.86pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 95d 0h.
Time to resolve95d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.