← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2676277
Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
3.4% implied · bid 2.9¢ · ask 3.8¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid2.9¢ / 3.8¢ / 3.4¢
Spread0.9¢ (26.9%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d-3.15pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$59
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$232 / $207
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.50
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.20pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 26d 11h.
Time to resolve26d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%