← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2695686

Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?

80.5% implied · bid 80.0¢ · ask 81.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 80.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability80.0%

Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 81.0¢ / 80.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.2%)

Change 24h-1.00pt

Change 7d+1.00pt

Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$9,742

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$96,341 / $44,944

Imbalance43% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.41

RSI (14, hourly)33.3

Realized vol 7d0.19pt

Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 529d 4h.

Time to resolve529d 4h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskhigh (80)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.