← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2696747
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 18% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,684
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,053 / $5,300
Imbalance18% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.04
RSI (14, hourly)71.4
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.