← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2696747
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,417
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$112,428 / $11,543
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 5.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean5.76
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%