← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2737233
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
25.0% implied · bid 24.0¢ · ask 26.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 24.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability24.0%
Bid / ask / mid24.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 31% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,665
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,824 / $5,216
Imbalance31% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score45.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.53
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 299d 11h.
Time to resolve299d 11h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%