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Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

1.1% implied · bid 1.0¢ · ask 1.2¢

The market prices this at 1.1%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability1.1%

Bid / ask / mid1.0¢ / 1.2¢ / 1.1¢

Spread0.2¢ (18.2%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.15pt

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$26,027

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,490 / $3,107

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score51.8 / 100

RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.56

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.05pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 26d 11h.

Time to resolve26d 11h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%