← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2750300
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.9%, up 7.2pt over 24h, on a 3.3¢ spread.
Implied probability8.9%
Bid / ask / mid5.7¢ / 9.0¢ / 7.3¢
Spread3.3¢ (44.9%)
Change 24h+7.20pt
Change 7d+7.00pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 34/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$18,586
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11 / $21
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.42
RSI (14, hourly)58.1
Realized vol 7d1.28pt
Change 1h-5.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.