← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2750319
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 48.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability48.0%
Bid / ask / mid47.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 48.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (6.2%)
Change 24h-7.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$6,132
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$374 / $1,366
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.17
RSI (14, hourly)42.9
Realized vol 7d1.65pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.