← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2757891
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 67.4%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability67.4%
Bid / ask / mid66.3¢ / 67.4¢ / 66.8¢
Spread1.1¢ (1.6%)
Change 24h+0.05pt
Change 7d-3.85pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 65/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,751
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$18,820 / $21,233
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score64.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 54 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.84
RSI (14, hourly)54.1
Realized vol 7d0.49pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 0h.
Time to resolve6d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.