← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2853074
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
15.5% implied · bid 15.0¢ · ask 16.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,533
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,218 / $2,355
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score47.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.50
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.42pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 118d 12h.
Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%