← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2853134
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.6%, up 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability2.6%
Bid / ask / mid2.4¢ / 3.0¢ / 2.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+1.40pt
Change 7d+2.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$12,433
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$433 / $188
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.46
RSI (14, hourly)60.8
Realized vol 7d0.32pt
Change 1h-1.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 12d 4h.
Time to resolve12d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.