← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2941849
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.5%, up 61.3pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability82.5%
Bid / ask / mid75.8¢ / 77.5¢ / 76.6¢
Spread1.7¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h+61.25pt
Change 7d+62.65pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$48,808
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$546 / $3,289
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score43.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.28
RSI (14, hourly)82.4
Realized vol 7d2.40pt
Change 1h-4.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 22h.
Time to resolve7d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.