← Explore · Polymarket · Market 2941850
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.0%, down 61.3pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability21.0%
Bid / ask / mid23.2¢ / 24.6¢ / 23.9¢
Spread1.4¢ (5.9%)
Change 24h-61.35pt
Change 7d-61.90pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$46,456
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$273 / $1,013
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.0σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.96
RSI (14, hourly)18.2
Realized vol 7d2.43pt
Change 1h+4.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 7d 22h.
Time to resolve7d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.