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Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?

2.5% implied · bid 1.3¢ · ask 3.7¢

The market prices this at 1.4%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 2.4¢ spread.

Implied probability1.4%

Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 3.7¢ / 2.5¢

Spread2.4¢ (96.0%)

Change 24h-0.85pt

Change 7d-0.80pt

Thin (score 38/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$458

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13 / $16

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score38.0 / 100

RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.89

RSI (14, hourly)60.0

Realized vol 7d0.56pt

Change 1h+0.30pt

Resolves in 52d 5h.

Time to resolve52d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%