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Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?

58.5% implied · bid 58.0¢ · ask 59.0¢

The market prices this at 65.0%, down 13.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability65.0%

Bid / ask / mid58.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 58.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)

Change 24h-13.50pt

Change 7d-14.00pt

Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,414

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$146 / $300

Imbalance7% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score45.2 / 100

RSI 5 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.36

RSI (14, hourly)5.3

Realized vol 7d1.42pt

Change 1h-6.50pt

Resolves in 25d 9h.

Time to resolve25d 9h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%