← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3008329
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.4%, down 1.6pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability93.4%
Bid / ask / mid92.4¢ / 93.4¢ / 92.9¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24h-1.60pt
Change 7d+3.15pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,188
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,344 / $5,206
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score48.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 28 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.78
RSI (14, hourly)27.8
Realized vol 7d1.37pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.