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Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?

76.3% implied · bid 75.7¢ · ask 76.9¢

The market prices this at 81.2%, down 4.9pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.

Implied probability81.2%

Bid / ask / mid75.7¢ / 76.9¢ / 76.3¢

Spread1.2¢ (1.6%)

Change 24h-4.95pt

Change 7d-3.75pt

Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 37% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$57

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$105 / $326

Imbalance37% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score44.2 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.29

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d3.14pt

Change 1h+0.15pt

Resolves in 117d 10h.

Time to resolve117d 10h

Resolution sourcedocumented

Sum of outcomes100.0%