← Explore · Polymarket · Market 3072319
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?
58.5% implied · bid 58.0¢ · ask 59.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 58.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability58.0%
Bid / ask / mid58.0¢ / 59.0¢ / 58.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.7%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 44% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$299
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$325 / $339
Imbalance44% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.94
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.92pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 10h.
Time to resolve117d 10h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Sum of outcomes100.0%